Forecast maps turn a wintry shade this month, flagging a nationwide nip and a handful of true freezes. While many places stay merely chilly, some spots are on course for a proper sting, with wind making it feel colder still.
Blue maps, colder mornings
Weather model charts point to a notable dip on 18 November, when a pocket of Scottish high ground is set to slip to around -1C. Elsewhere, a broad sweep of the country cools to low single figures, with frost risk where skies clear overnight.
Model guidance highlights -1C over the Cairngorms on 18 November, with a wider band of 0–3C at daybreak across multiple regions.
In Scotland, eight counties are projected to brush 0C at dawn: Highland, Moray, Aberdeenshire, Perth and Kinross, Stirling, Argyll and Bute, South Lanarkshire and the Scottish Borders. The surrounding uplands could feel sub-zero once the wind is factored in.
Northern England shows a sharper edge too. Six counties are tipped to flirt with freezing: Northumberland, Cumbria, Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. Across Wales, the chill looks widespread, with most areas near 0C, except for parts of Powys and Wrexham likely holding at 1–5C. Northern Ireland cools to around 1–2C.
Coastal towns fare a touch milder but still brisk. The south coast, from Southampton to Brighton, and the north-east coast, from Middlesbrough through Scarborough to Hull, look set for 2–3C. Liverpool and Blackpool also sit near 2–3C, while East Anglia hovers between 3–5C and the Midlands nearer 5C. Remarkably, Peterborough stands out with a projected minimum near 7C.
Where the freeze bites: counties and cities
Counties at or near freezing
- Scotland (around 0C): Highland; Moray; Aberdeenshire; Perth and Kinross; Stirling; Argyll and Bute; South Lanarkshire; Scottish Borders
- England (around 0C): Northumberland; Cumbria; Somerset; Dorset; Devon; Cornwall
- Wales: most areas near 0C; parts of Powys and Wrexham 1–5C
- Northern Ireland: Belfast, Derry around 1–2C
Regional minimums at a glance
| Region or location | Projected minimum (18 Nov) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cairngorms (near Braemar, Balmoral) | -1C | Wind chill likely below zero for prolonged periods |
| Scottish counties listed above | 0C | Frost risk where skies clear overnight |
| Northern England (six counties) | 0C | Brief ground frost possible at dawn |
| Wales (most areas) | 0C | Powys and Wrexham generally 1–5C |
| South coast (Southampton, Brighton) | 2–3C | Breezy, adding a sharper feel |
| North-east coast (Middlesbrough, Scarborough, Hull) | 2–3C | Onshore winds keep the chill up |
| North-west (Liverpool, Blackpool) | 2–3C | Blustery spells likely |
| East Anglia (Norwich, Ipswich) | 3–5C | Coldest in rural spots |
| Midlands | ~5C | Urban areas a shade milder |
| Northern Ireland (Belfast, Derry) | 1–2C | Patchy fog where winds ease |
| Peterborough | ~7C | Outlier warmth amid a cooler backdrop |
Even at 0–3C, a stiff breeze can drag the apparent temperature below freezing, especially on exposed coasts and hills.
Why mid-november could flip between mild and frosty
The pattern into mid-month pivots on pressure. A shift towards higher pressure increases the odds of calmer, drier interludes. Clearer nights under those conditions allow heat to escape rapidly, setting the stage for fog and frost. Interspersed with that, frontal systems still brush in from the west at times, bringing showers, longer spells of rain and gusty winds.
Forecasters expect many places to sit near or a notch above the seasonal norm overall, but colder pockets flare up when nights are clear and winds drop. That is why charts can show -1C in the mountains while lowland towns nearby sit several degrees warmer.
What it means for you
Prepare for crisp mornings and damp evenings. If you commute early, allow extra time to clear the windscreen. In rural or shaded streets, watch for black ice where overnight temperatures touch 0C. Layers matter: a windproof outer layer can make a 3C start feel more comfortable.
- Home: bleed radiators, check boiler pressure and lag exposed pipes to reduce burst risk.
- Car: keep de-icer, scraper, a torch and thin gloves in the glovebox; check tyre tread and pressures.
- Health: if you care for an older neighbour, a quick check-in on colder mornings can make a difference.
- Pets: shorten late-night walks when wind chill dips; dry paws to prevent slips on tiled floors.
Energy costs still matter when the mercury falls. Set your thermostat to a steady, moderate temperature and use thermostatic radiator valves to focus heat on lived-in rooms. Draught-proofing around doors and letterboxes is inexpensive and can trim usage during these cooler spells.
Five-day snapshot
The coming days bring plenty of cloud and pulses of rain, heaviest over western hills. It stays rather windy at times, especially in exposed northern and western areas. Elsewhere sees brighter breaks between showers. Temperatures remain on the mild side by day to start, before the pattern turns quieter for a time, boosting the chance of overnight fog and patchy frost.
How confident are the maps?
The blue shades covering the country come from model output that blends several data sources. The big picture—cooler air arriving, a few freezing spots in the north, frost risks under clear skies—looks plausible. Precise numbers for your street can shift as wind direction, cloud and timing of showers change. Late November is a tricky period for forecasters because slight tweaks in pressure patterns can tip conditions from grey and mild to clear and frosty.
Use the projected minima as a guide to plan mornings. If you are in one of the listed counties, assume frost is possible on 18 November and prepare for it, especially if you live away from the urban heat island or at elevation.
Extra context to plan your week
Wind chill often bites hardest on cycle commutes. A 10–15 mph headwind can make 3C feel closer to freezing, so full-finger gloves and a neck gaiter help. Runners should favour bright layers for the darker, fog-prone starts. Gardeners can lift tender pots into shelter for a couple of nights and hold off watering late in the day to reduce overnight icing.
For families, a quick evening checklist works: set the morning heating schedule, place the scraper by the door, pop school kit by the radiator to warm through, and charge torches in case foggy starts coincide with power dips. Small steps turn a frosty morning from a scramble into a routine.
