Forecasts hint at frost, soaking rain and a late-November snowy twist.
After a run of mild, damp days, a sharper pattern is moving in across the UK, with the South West in line for a noticeable drop. Forecasts point to temperatures sliding from recent highs towards single figures, with some spots dipping to 3C by Tuesday 18 November. The shift will feel abrupt after the softer start to the month. And it brings talk of hill snow further north.
The change dovetails with a broader spell of unsettled weather. A band of low pressure is on the move northeast, funnelling rain across many regions, especially Wales and the North West of England. Forecasters tracking model data see chilly winds starting to develop later in the month, raising the risk of wintry showers in northern uplands. The timing could suprise a few people.
South West temperatures set to plunge, with a short and sharp cold snap
Daytime values that recently hovered near 11C look set to fall, with lows around 3C expected in the region by Tuesday 18 November. That means colder mornings and a rawer feel, even where skies brighten. You will notice the change on early commutes and school runs, especially in rural dips and valleys.
Forecasters also note a clear north to south split. The colder, drier regime focuses on central and northern parts, while southern and southwestern counties could cling to milder, cloudier and wetter conditions at first. In short, the South West cools down, but the sharpest bite lands further north.
Model guidance used by WXCharts, which draws on MetDesk data, flags a fresh burst of cold air building from around 23 November. It places 25 counties in the firing line as winds turn brisk and feel distinctly cooler. That timing matters for weekend travel and outdoor plans.
Met Office long-range outlook hints at frost, drier skies and a northern snow tease
In its latest guidance, the Met Office sets out the likely pattern as we head into next week. The long-range forecast reads: « Many central and northern parts of the UK will likely be in a colder but drier regime than of late with overnight frosts, and a few showers near windward coasts in particular which may be wintry on high ground. However, it could remain cloudier, milder and wetter initially across some southern and southwestern areas, with some uncertainty as to how quickly this clears away to the south. »
« It is most likely that the bulk of the UK will experience drier and colder conditions into the first part of next week. Later in the period there is increasing uncertainty, but a trend towards more changeable conditions is possible, with some rain or showers in places, and perhaps some hill snow at times in the north. Temperatures overall may return to near-average. »
That balances the picture. You can expect colder nights and some frost mainly across central and northern areas, while the far south may sit under thicker cloud and rain a little longer. Then conditions tip back towards near normal as changeable weather reasserts itself. It sounds familiar for late November in Britain.
Rain warnings, flooded routes and the counties next in the firing line
While temperatures take the headlines, heavy rain remains a pressing issue for many communities. Nearly 40 areas sit under rain warnings for potential flooding, including parts of south Wales today. Downpours have already been notable, with more than 30 mm recorded in Hull on Monday, and a sharp 25.4 mm in a few hours at Cranwell in Lincolnshire.
This wet spell links to that low pressure zone shuttling northeast, steering pulses of rain into Wales and the North West of England. As it clears, colder air edges south, which is why the wind will bite a little harder late in the month. Forecasters at WXCharts expect those chillier winds to begin spreading from 23 November, a detail that tallies with the broader UK outlook.
Independent forecaster Netweather also flags the wintry potential this week. Meteorologist Jo Farrow said: « Something colder with a frost risk in the north and even snow showers for Scottish hills but really it will just pull temperatures to where they should be at this time in November. Southern Britain could hold onto the milder air even into the weekend. » That aligns with the idea of a north to south divide for a time.
- Key timings at a glance for the UK and the South West include a drop from around 11C to 3C by Tuesday 18 November, chillier winds spreading from 23 November, and ongoing rain impacts with nearly 40 warning areas and standout totals near 30 mm in Hull and 25.4 mm at Cranwell.
So what should residents expect on the ground. Short, sharp colder spells between bands of rain, a brighter interlude at times, and brisk winds later next week. Hill routes in the north stand a chance of sleet or snow showers, while the South West sees a damp, cooler turn before the air dries out.
Travel plans may need a little flexibility as showers pivot across the country. Rural lanes could be slick after repeated downpours, and standing water may linger through the morning peak. Then the colder air nudges in and the feel changes once more.
It is the ebb and flow of British late autumn. A cooler burst, a soggy spell, and a hint of wintriness on the hills. And yes, many of us will reach for a thicker coat as temperatures slide.
