The date and the counties involved may surprise.
Winter is starting to bite and the first serious hints of a nationwide chill are on the cards. Fresh model maps suggest an Arctic blast swinging in later this month, with 25 counties flagged for everything from a dusting to deeper accumulations. The signal firms up around November 23, when winds pivot north and temperatures dip across large swathes of the UK.
The latest output from WXCharts, which draws on MetDesk data, shows Scotland taking the first hit as the cold air spills south. Snow depth projections point to 18 to 20cm in the Highlands and parts of Aberdeenshire, with the purple shading spreading from Inverness to Perth. The central belt, including Edinburgh and Glasgow, also lights up for notable flurries. Curious yet.
New WXCharts maps point to 23 November and where the snow risk looks sharpest
Scotland stands in the firing line if the colder air locks in, with the Highlands and Aberdeenshire leading the early snowfall totals. The maps suggest a white turn working down the spine of the country, clipping high routes first and then edging into lower ground as the air mass settles. That matches the classic north to south set-up we see when polar air digs in.
Northern England is not spared. Signals build for the Pennines and Cumbria, while North Wales also pops up for showers that could turn wintry over higher ground. Areas around Manchester, Newcastle and Derbyshire show a lighter covering at times, the kind that settles for a few hours before the next band arrives.
Temperatures look biting on the day the signal peaks. One map shows maximums around -1C to -2C across the Highlands, 0C to 3C for much of the North of England, and a milder 4C to 7C in the South East. It wont be uniform, and small shifts in wind direction can nudge the snow line up or down by a few miles.
The full list of 25 UK counties flagged by the latest maps
Based on the current WXCharts run, these are the places most likely to catch snow showers or more organised falls as the cold pools. Higher routes go first, then nearby lower levels if the air holds its nerve.
- Aberdeenshire
- Aberdeenshire (coastal and inland portions)
- Angus
- Argyll and Bute
- Dumfries and Galloway
- Fife
- Highland (Inverness area)
- Moray
- Perth and Kinross
- Stirling
- Cheshire
- County Durham
- Cumbria
- Derbyshire (Peak District area)
- Greater Manchester
- Lancashire
- North Yorkshire
- Northumberland
- Shropshire
- West Yorkshire
- Gwynedd
- Powys
- County Antrim
- County Londonderry
- County Down
For many readers that list will feel familiar from past early season cold snaps. Higher ground grabs the first flakes, valleys follow if the cold digs in and showers line up on a northerly flow. Short, sharp bursts can still snarl the commute.
What the Met Office says about late November and the early December set-up
The official line keeps a cautious tone for the back end of the month. In a forecast for 24 November to 8 December, the Met Office said « Whilst the expected weather patterns during late November are very uncertain, there is a greater chance of spells of high pressure during this period, bringing more in the way of dry weather compared to the current weather pattern, which also increases the chances of overnight fog and frost. »
The same outlook adds a clear northern flavour to any wintry chances. The Met Office said « There will probably still be some spells of rain, showers, and stronger winds though, especially in the west. Hill snow is also a possibility, mainly in the north. Overall, near or slightly above average temperatures are most likely, though some colder spells are also possible, especially should any prolonged settled spells develop. »
So the headline story reads like this. Computer maps see a late November northerly with snow chances for exposed and upland parts, while the official forecast leans on dry, frosty spells with hill snow in the North. As always at this range, small shifts make a big difference on the ground, and that is why the next few updates matter.
