Here is what the Met Office expects.
After a balmy start to November, the UK faces a sharp flip to colder conditions as a northerly plunge lines up for next week. The Met Office has outlined the first real chance of snow this season, with a system set to sweep south and temperatures tumbling.
Forecasters say a frosty push from near Iceland could slide down the eastern side of Scotland and into Wales in the middle of next week, dragging in wintry showers. It comes hot on the heels of record-breaking mild nights and a stormy spell to end this week. The mood is about to change.
Arctic air and a sliding system from Iceland, where the first flakes could fall
Meteorologist Alex Deakin says the incoming pattern could deliver « some sleet, some snow, something a bit wintry » in parts as the high pressure that shielded us drifts away. That opens the door to an Arctic air feed, with colder air digging south and frost becoming likley in sheltered spots.
He explained that the second half of next week bears watching. Alex Deakin said, « Through the middle and end of next week, things perhaps get a bit more interesting. There’s the potential for a weather system to push its way southwards as the high drifts away towards the west. » He added, « If this happens, we could get some snow on the northern edge of it, which then feeds its way southwards. This means we could see a bit of snow across many places. »
That prospect arrives after an unusually mild first half of November. A flow of warm air from the south and stubborn cloud cover kept nights notably warm, delivering the mildest Bonfire Night on record, with Teddington in London only dipping to 14.4C. From that, we pivot to the season’s first appreciable wintry risk.
Thursday 20 November on the charts, a 20 percent chance of 1 cm even in the south
Signals grow stronger into Thursday, with colder air set to bite a little harder and conditions turning wetter as the front sinks south. Alex Deakin noted the potential reach of the system. He said, « Looking at this chart for Thursday (November 20), even across southern parts of the country, it’s highlighting around a 20% – maybe even greater than 20% – chance of seeing more than 1cm of snow. So, things could turn quite wintry. »
Any accumulations look most likely over higher routes in the north and east at first, although the freezing level will fluctuate with passing bands of rain and sleet. The Met Office guidance also hints that the wintry signal may ease late week. Alex Deakin said, « There’s perhaps a lower chance of snow as we go through Friday and more so by Saturday, with something milder moving in. » He added, « But it’s worth highlighting that yes, things are going to turn colder as we go through next week, and with that, there’s a reasonable chance of seeing some sleet and snow overall. »
Beyond that, the late November pattern remains finely balanced. Forecasters flag a greater chance of high pressure spells as we edge towards December, which could mean drier, colder interludes and frosty nights, or a brief milder push if winds tip from the southwest. For now, the next cold shot looks the headline.
Before the chill bites, the amber rain warning, Storm Claudia and travel risks
Before the colder phase arrives, this Friday brings a separate set of hazards. An amber warning for rain covers parts of Wales, the Midlands, the South West, the South East and the East of England from noon until the end of the day as Storm Claudia sends bands of heavy downpours across the country. The storm, named by the Spanish meteorological service, also drags in gusty winds and tricky driving conditions.
Some places could see up to 80mm of rain, with deep floodwater posing a danger to life in the worst affected spots. A broader yellow warning covers much of England for a 24 hour period from 6am on Friday, from Cheshire and North Yorkshire down to the south coast. In addition, a wind warning is in force from noon to midnight for western areas, with gusts peaking near 70mph in exposed locations.
The Met Office says the weather could bring power cuts, travel disruption and damage to buildings as the heaviest rain and strongest gusts move through during the afternoon and evening. Those setting off should allow extra time, check routes and be ready for standing water or fallen branches on rural stretches.
- Amber rain warning timing and areas, from noon to end of day, covering parts of Wales, the Midlands, South West, South East and East of England
Once the rain clears and the system slips away, colder air moves in behind it. Temperatures fall compared with the opening half of the month, with showers turning wintry in places and the risk of ice as skies break overnight. The detail will hinge on how quickly that north to south slide develops, which is why many eyes are on those next updates.
