Computer model maps now point to a short burst of warmth around 5 November, pushing daytime values well into the teens across much of England. The east and south-east look favoured, with East Anglia in line for the top figures if the warm sector reaches far enough north.
What the latest maps suggest
Fresh output visualised by WXCharts indicates a peak near 18C in parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. Chelmsford and Norwich sit close to that 18C contour. Colchester, Ipswich and Bury St Edmunds fall inside the same warm plume, with coastal strips of East Anglia holding 15C to 17C if winds stay off the North Sea.
5 November signal: up to 18C in East Anglia, mid to high teens for London, Kent, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire.
London also trends warm on the same charts, touching 17C in the city and across the Thames Estuary. Kent and Hertfordshire look similar. Cambridgeshire sits in the 16C to 17C bracket on several runs, which would feel spring-like for early November.
How far the warmth stretches
Eastern and central England hold the advantage in this pattern. Western counties spend more time in cloud and showers as Atlantic fronts graze the country, which clips the highs. Forecast snapshots show 13C for Cornwall and around 15C for Devon. The Midlands, Yorkshire and the north-east sit mostly in the mid-teens, with 14C for parts of Merseyside and Lancashire. Cumbria looks cooler near 10C, especially where peaks and moors keep cloud wrapped in.
| Region | Forecast high |
|---|---|
| Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex | 17–18C |
| London | 16–17C |
| Kent, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire | 16–17C |
| Midlands, Yorkshire, north-east | 14–16C |
| Merseyside, Lancashire | 14C |
| Devon | 15C |
| Cornwall | 13C |
| Cumbria | 9–10C |
What the Met Office guidance says
The Met Office long-range outlook for late October into early November keeps the overall theme changeable. It flags an unsettled start with low pressure close by, bringing spells of rain and pockets of strong wind, particularly in the west. Between those systems, drier and brighter interludes break through. Temperatures lean around average or a shade above for the time of year.
Changeable pattern holds into early November: rain at times, breezy spells in the west, but occasional brighter windows with slightly above-average temperatures.
That leaves room for a brief Indian summer feel in the east and south-east, where sunshine and a south or south-westerly breeze can add a few degrees. The west carries more cloud and rainfall in this set-up, so the difference across the country will stand out.
How unusual would 18C be?
For early November, typical afternoon highs in the south-east sit near 12C. East Anglia often runs similar. A top of 18C would land roughly 5C to 7C above that benchmark, which many will notice in lighter clothing choices and later switch-on times for the heating. The warmth does not guarantee crisp, blue-sky days though; cloud cover and wind direction remain the swing factors.
Why the east looks warmer this time
The pattern shown by the models tilts the wind from the south-west, feeding relatively mild Atlantic air across the country. As the air dries under clearer skies east of high ground, temperatures respond. The Pennines and Welsh hills trap more moisture to the west, which curbs the rise. If a brighter slot opens over East Anglia on 5 November, the sun angle still has enough strength to lift values into the high teens.
- Southerly component to the wind lifts temperatures above the seasonal norm.
- Dry, brighter gaps favour the east for the highest readings.
- Cloudier, wetter spells keep the west and north-west cooler.
Bonfire Night plans: what this could mean for you
Outdoor events could feel much milder than usual, especially across the east and south-east. Light layers may suffice if you stand away from exposed coastlines. Ground conditions may still be soft after earlier rainfall, so sturdy footwear helps in fields and parks. Gusty intervals could accompany any passing fronts before or after the mild window, so organisers should keep an eye on local updates.
Bonfire Night comfort call: warmer air likely in the east, but earlier rain may leave soggy ground and patchy breezes.
Risks, caveats and confidence
WXCharts displays raw model guidance, and such snapshots can shift by a county or two as the date nears. A subtle change in cloud thickness or wind off the North Sea can shave several degrees from the top line across East Anglia. Conversely, a longer sunny break over the Thames corridor could nudge London into the upper teens for an hour or two.
Rainfall looks most frequent for western hills across the period leading up to 5 November. Some showers could drift eastwards on the day itself. Any fog risk tends to sit in the clearer nights either side of the warm pulse, and that could slow the morning temperature climb in valleys.
Practical takeaways for the week ahead
- East and south-east: prepare for a pleasant, milder spell; carry a light layer for the evening drop.
- West and north-west: expect showers or longer rain at times; temperatures hold closer to average.
- Commuters: allow time for patchy fog on clearer nights; low sun glare may affect the morning drive.
- Gardeners: take advantage of the warmth for late bulbs, but protect tender plants from cooler nights.
- Homes: a brief dip in heating demand is likely; consider airing rooms during the mildest daytime hours.
What “Indian summer” means in Britain
The term refers to a spell of warm, settled weather in autumn after a cooler snap. In the UK, it often arrives on a mild south-westerly flow once a front clears. The air feels humid rather than hot, and the effect can last a day or two, occasionally longer if high pressure secures a lid over the country. This coming signal looks short-lived, but striking if you stand in sunshine out of the breeze.
Beyond Bonfire Night
Model trends keep the jet stream active into mid-November, which supports further changeable spells. That means more rain at times, especially in the west, with drier breaks moving east to west between systems. Temperatures lean near seasonal to slightly above, so cold snaps remain brief. Snow signals on the highest Scottish tops may come and go, but widespread lowland cold looks unlikely in the first half of the month.
If the warmer sector aligns with daylight and clear patches on 5 November, many in East Anglia, London and the Home Counties could enjoy a rare T-shirt lunchtime in November. Keep plans flexible, watch the local detail, and make the most of any dry, bright windows before the Atlantic conveyor resumes its turn.
T-shirt in Novemeber in Norwich? I’ll take it—just keep that North Sea breeze away.